Guess which of the following cities has the larger population
a) Cairo or Alexandria
b) Kano or Johannesburg
c) Ibadan or Nairobi
d) Johannesburg or Dakar
e) Tripoli or Addis Ababa
f) Dar es Salaam or Soweto
The answers are a) Cairo , b) Kano, c) Ibadan, d) Dakar e) Addis Ababa, and f) Dar es Salaam.
How did you do? If you are like me and don’t know a lot about African geography, you probably didn’t do so well. Guessing randomly should have produced three correct answers (since there is a 50/50 chance). But many people do worse. In fact, it would not be surprising if you only got one right, Cairo versus Alexandria. So if you weren’t really guessing randomly, what influenced your answer? If you are like most people, in the absence of knowing the answer, you chose the choice that was most familiar.
Gerd Gigerenzer, the director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin conducted such an experiment with his students. Instead of using African cities, he used US cities. Gigerenzer’s results were similar – students tended to choose the cities that sounded the most familiar.
Here’s another example from a recent episode of Jeopardy, “What country, with 104 reactors, has the most nuclear reactors in the world”
You are at an advantage since you know that I am up to something. You are probably trying to fight off your urge to say “France” (but it did pop into your head for a second, didn’t it?). But, the Jeopardy contestants weren’t so lucky. Two of them guessed France. I’ve asked about 100 people since first hearing the question. Almost everyone has said France. A few people (and the Jeopardy winner) have gotten the right answer, The United States.
This is another example of familiarity tricking our brain. In this case it’s not about being more familiar with the United States or France. Rather, it is being more familiar with associations of nuclear power with each of those countries. We tend to read and hear a lot about how much France is doing with nuclear energy. We also tend to hear criticism about the U.S. being far behind. Both of those statements might be true. However, when you consider the size of the United States relative to France and remember that nuclear reactors are also used for military purposes, it’s not hard to believe that the U.S. can have more reactors but still be “behind” in the use of the technology. The problem is that because our brain is so quick to grasp the familiar, we often don’t think through those other issues.
As leaders, we are constantly making decisions on imperfect data. We are also filtering volumes of information from our bosses, our customers, our people, and the media. Inevitably certain patterns start to emerge. It’s our job to ensure that those familiar patterns are not clouding our judgments.
A few tips for avoiding the “familiarity” trap
- Ask yourself, “how much do I really know about this?”(whatever “this” may be) If the answer is “not much” – do some research.
- Ask yourself, “Do I understand the alternatives?”
- Validate your sources especially when your sole source is what you “think”
- When choosing among several options, make sure to find data that supports and contradicts each one. Then make your decision.
- Surround yourself with people who have had different experiences than you. That way, you all won’t be familiar with the same things.
